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Has social media's time already past?

Faith valuations are skewing the global tech industry

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Social media companies have become the new heavyweights of the technology world, but is the bubble about to burst?

Some say that it already has. Facebook's stock has fallen by 16.5 percent since its initial public offering in May, which valued the company at $104 billion. Share prices dropped soon after, and many analysts have warned that the company was heavily overvalued – pointing to its unproven ad revenue model.

Facebook makes money by charging companies a fee to show adverts designed to attract new “likes”. However, a BBC investigation published this week suggests that many of these 'likes' are from fake accounts run by computer programs to spread spam.

Facebook claims it has not seen evidence of a significant problem, but the story raises further questions about the value of the company's advertising model. Several technology companies are already suffering in the wake of Facebook's IPO, and it is thought that the whole affair will make it a lot harder for the next social media company to go public.

Meanwhile, the news emerged today that news-sharing website Digg – once valued at more than $160 million – will be sold to technology investment firm Betaworks for just $500,000 (£324,000). The company plans to turn Digg back into a startup with a low budget, small team and fast cycles.

Signs that the social media economy is no more than a bubble were around long before Facebook's IPO. Deals site Groupon raised $700 million in its November 2011 IPO, but is being sued for allegedly misleading investors about its financial prospects, and shares have now tumbled to a record low.

Zynga, the games company behind FarmVille and Words with Friends, also bombed on its first day of trading, and has since seen its stock sink to under the $5 per share.

“The social media bubble is so much like the internet bubble of 1999/2000,” said TechMarketView analyst Richard Holway.

“We are sure that a tiny bunch of companies will survive and prosper to become the new Amazons. But the vast majority will either fail or be ‘rescued’ in garage-sales for a fraction of the investment poured into them.”

There is one exception, according to Holway: LinkedIn.

When LinkedIn went public in May 2011, its IPO price was $45, but that figure has since soared to over $100. This is largely down to its business model, which is much closer to being an enterprise business model than the consumer models of the others.

“Whereas Facebook relies mainly on advertising, Linkedin doesn’t really need advertising,” he said. “Facebook hasn’t really worked out its mobile model – Linkedin is just as effective however you access it; Facebook generates $0.06 per member per hour, Linkedin generates $1.30 per member hour – 21x more.”


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