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UK economic growth ‘picking-up’, says OECD


OECD's leading UK economic indicator rose to a Sept level of 100.2

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The UK economy is showing gradual signs of picking-up according to the OECD.

The organisation said on Monday, that its leading indicator for the UK climbed to a level of 100.2 in September from 100.1 in August, 99.9 in July, 99.8 in June, 99.7 in May, 99.6 in April and a low of 99.3 in early-2012/late-2011.

The OECD’s month-over-month increase in the leading indicator was 0.19 percent in September, which was up from increases of 0.16 percent in August, 0.14 percent in July, 0.10 percent in June and 0.07 percent in May. It said that the slow but sure climb suggested that UK “growth was picking up”.

Official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested that the UK had exited a recession in the third quarter when GDP grew by a better-than-expected 1.0 percent quarter-over-quarter.

“The fact that GDP growth of 1.0 percent quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter substantially outweighed the 0.4 percent decline suffered in the second quarter suggested that the economy had seen underlying modest growth over the two quarters combined after allowing for the various distortions to GDP in the second and third quarters,” said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

But he noted that while the third-quarter GDP growth of 1.0 percent quarter-over-quarter and the OECD’s September indicator were encouraging, the UK is by no means out of the economic woods and further relapses remain a very real possibility.

“Indeed, the economy may yet struggle to grow at all in the fourth quarter, as is evident from mixed survey evidence out so far for October. Much is likely to depend on whether or not consumers spend at a reasonable rate for the remainder of 2012,” Archer concluded.

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UK economic growth ‘picking-up’, says OECD
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